Dear summer travelers,
We are reaching out to you to address the increasing concern
with the COVID-19 outbreak in regards to our summer trip. The sheer volume of headlines regarding
COVID-19 is more than enough to alarm anyone.
We understand the scope of this contagion and are keeping a close eye on
the ever-changing developments. Please be assured that the safety of our
students is always our first priority.
Due to this dynamic outbreak and spread, we are currently in
a holding pattern in regards to payments to both the airlines and the
tour operators. This allows us to give
full refunds if we need to cancel the trip in the near future. With that said, we are still moving forward
with plans, organization and preparation for the trip to go as planned.
If and when we move forward with payments on our end, we
will make sure we have a prudent insurance, refund policy with the airlines and
tour operator. We will inform you as to
what the insurance policy will look like prior to making the payments on our
end.
As you know this situation is changing by the day and we are
doing our best to be sensible in not making a decision in haste as a lot can
change between now and June.
Please visit our blog for general information and updates
regarding the summer trip.
Sincerely,
Ramsey, Cayla and Shelby
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/
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#Coronavirus #Uptated #numbers
For those who are interested, here is the most up to date numbers on coronavirus that Ib compiled myself. My personal take is at the end of the numbers.
1. Total infected:
- 45171world wide
- 33366 in Hubei
- 11287 outside Hubei
- 440 outside of China (180 on princess)
2. Total infected trend:
- Hubei: 1600 new cases today, 2000 days before, 2800 two days before, 2300 three days before, 2800 four days before, 3500 five days before, 4400 six days before.
- Rest of China: 360 new cases today, 440 days before, 600 two days before, 1000 three days before.
- Worldwide (excluding princess): 17 new cases today, 14 new cases the day before, 21 new cases two days before, 21 new cases three days before, 28 new cases four days before.
3. suspected cases:
Today: 11,295 suspected cases
Yesterday: 16,687 suspected cases
2 days ago: 18,438 suspected cases
3 days ago: ~25,000 suspected cases
4. Death rate:
- Hubei: 1068 out of 33366 = 3.2%
- Rest of china: 42 out of 11287 = 0.37%
- Outside of china: 2 out of 440 = 0.45%
5. Serious/critical rate:
- Hubei: 7241 out of 33366 = 21.7%
- Rest of china: 963 out of 11287 = 8.5%
- Outside of china: 12 out of 440 = 2.7%
Some Interesting cases:
Princess Cruise ship: 80-year-old Wuhan man with symptoms for the entire duration of his 8-day cruise. 180 people currently test positive with 3000 quarantined.
Singapore conference cluster (Jan 20-22): Wuhan man arrives in Singapore with a virus, infects people from South Korea, Malaysia and one man from the UK. The UK man goes to France and infects 4 people in France, then returns to the UK and infects another 4.
Bavaria cluster (Jan 20-21): Wuhan woman lied about having no symptoms, goes to a meeting in Germany, infects 10 people, one of which goes to Spain. Some of the germans infect another 8 close families.
Singapore health shop cluster: (Jan 25): Wuhan tourist go to a health shop. Infects 2 people who in turn infect 15 people (mainly family).
Tony's personal take:
1) Vast majority of the cases are in Hubei, and in the epicenter, we are seeing a reduction in the number of new cases for close to 6 consecutive days. The numbers outside of Hubei are also dropping, with only 360 new cases. The number of cases worldwide is also dropping and in most countries, with the exception of Singapore, HK, Thailand, UK, and Germany, the cases have completely stopped.
2) There hasn't been a new case in Australia in over a week. And in Melbourne and Sydney, it's been 2 weeks. Australia's brief stint with the virus is well and truly over.
3) I always wondered why the international cases haven't exploded, given the first few cases were exported about 1 month ago. For example, the 15 cases in Australia were all on long haul flights. some of them were even on domestic flights while symptomatic, and not a single H2H transmission has happened in Australia. This is the case for almost all international cases with the exception of Singapore, Thailand, and UK.
4) The death rate outside of the epicenter seems to be low. 0.37% in China and 0.45% overseas. More deadly than the flu, but nothing compared to SARS or MERS.
5) The virus does not seem to affect young people very much. JAMA paper suggests that people under 30 are barely affected, and there are no deaths of people under 27.
6) Asymptomatic transmission: Apparently uncommon. Accounts for <5% of transmissions. The evidence that caused WHO and CDC to declare the virus is transmissible while asymptomatic is based on the german traveler who lied about her symptoms.
7) Tonys Future prediction:
- China: Hubei will probably be in lockdown for another 2 weeks, which means that everyone will be out of the incubation period. The rest of China will see a drop to minimal cases within the week but may see a pick up in numbers once work resumes.
- Australia: I predict no significant increase in cases. Probably none, given the travel ban.
- Singapore: Singapore has started some proper screening and contact tracing, I suspect the infections should stop in 2 weeks.
- The rest of Asia: very strange that many of the SEA countries have very little cases. Are the virus infecting everyone there but there is not enough testing? I think it's unlikely, as the number is inline with the rest of the world.
- The rest of the world: It's been a month since the first exported case from China to the rest of the world. If the virus was truly very infectious and deadly, we would have seen it by now. Alternatively, the virus has super mild symptoms, and it won't matter anyway.
8) What are your chances of catching it on the plane:
- Australia: zero
- SEA: Probably 1 in 100,000 to 1 in 1,000,00. You also have to sit close to a person who is symptomatic, who isn't wearing masks or gloves. Which is about the same risk as getting into a car accident in a 5 to 10km drive.
- Europe: 1 in 1,000,000 at worst.
- FYI: out of all the people who are infected, not a single person has been confirmed to be infected on a plane or the airport. 80% are family, and the rest are other close contacts.
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